tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Nashville via Chicago: arrives on time 30%

  1. 14:10 SDF → 14:50 ORD
    UA 5603 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 40m · 57% on time, 3.2% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:49 ORD → 17:40 BNA
    UA 5665 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 51m · 58% on time, 4.6% cancelled

Total trip 4h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Louisville). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (3.2% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (4.6% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip4h 30mSDF 14:10 to BNA 17:40, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.