tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Las Vegas via Chicago: arrives on time 43%

  1. 14:10 SDF → 14:50 ORD
    UA 5603 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 40m · 57% on time, 3.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 04m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:54 ORD → 17:57 LAS
    UA 1875 · United · 4h 03m · 75% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 6h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Louisville). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 19 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 04m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (3.2% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip6h 47mSDF 14:10 to LAS 17:57, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.