Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
Louisville → Dulles via Chicago: arrives on time 40%
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14:10 SDF → 14:50 ORDUA 5603 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 40m · 57% on time, 3.2% cancelled
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1h 03m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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15:53 ORD → 19:02 IADUA 2437 · United · 2h 09m · 71% on time, 1.6% cancelled
Total trip 4h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (3.2% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (1.6% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip4h 52mSDF 14:10 to IAD 19:02, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.