tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fayetteville/Springdale/ → Minneapolis via Chicago: arrives on time 23%

  1. 18:37 XNA → 20:40 ORD
    UA 5639 · United, flown by SkyWest · 2h 03m · 70% on time, 12.9% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:28 ORD → 23:10 MSP
    UA 1131 · United · 1h 42m · 59% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 33m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection46%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 54% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time23%First flight not cancelled (12.9% are) × connection made (46%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip4h 33mXNA 18:37 to MSP 23:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.