tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fayetteville/Springdale/ → Philadelphia via Chicago: arrives on time 43%

  1. 18:37 XNA → 20:40 ORD
    UA 5639 · United, flown by SkyWest · 2h 03m · 70% on time, 12.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:45 ORD → 00:57 PHL +1 day
    UA 1744 · United · 2h 12m · 74% on time, 5.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (12.9% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (5.9% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip5h 20mXNA 18:37 to PHL 00:57, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.