tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fayetteville/Springdale/ → Denver via Chicago: arrives on time 45%

  1. 18:37 XNA → 20:40 ORD
    UA 5639 · United, flown by SkyWest · 2h 03m · 70% on time, 12.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:50 ORD → 23:48 DEN
    UA 377 · United · 2h 58m · 72% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 11m, scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Fayetteville/Springdale/). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (12.9% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip6h 11mXNA 18:37 to DEN 23:48, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.