tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fayetteville/Springdale/ → Los Angeles via Chicago: arrives on time 29%

  1. 18:37 XNA → 20:40 ORD
    UA 5639 · United, flown by SkyWest · 2h 03m · 70% on time, 12.9% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 ORD → 00:09 LAX +1 day
    UA 661 · United · 4h 39m · 64% on time, 0.5% cancelled

Total trip 7h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind Fayetteville/Springdale/). Times are local. Both flew on 23 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection52%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 48% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (12.9% are) × connection made (52%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip7h 32mXNA 18:37 to LAX 00:09, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.