tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Dulles via Nashville: arrives on time 28%

  1. 15:49 ORD → 17:40 BNA
    UA 5665 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 51m · 58% on time, 4.6% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:30 BNA → 21:23 IAD
    UA 1460 · United · 1h 53m · 66% on time, 1.2% cancelled

Total trip 4h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 50 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection45%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 55% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (4.6% are) × connection made (45%) × second flight not cancelled (1.2% are) and within 15 minutes (66%).
Total trip4h 34mORD 15:49 to IAD 21:23, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.