tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Traverse City → Washington via Chicago: arrives on time 51%

  1. 15:55 TVC → 16:29 ORD
    UA 5686 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 34m · 67% on time, 3.6% cancelled
  2. 3h 16m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:45 ORD → 22:54 DCA
    UA 2160 · United · 2h 09m · 56% on time, 5.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 28 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 151 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 16m layover.
Arrives on time51%First flight not cancelled (3.6% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (5.0% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip6h 59mTVC 15:55 to DCA 22:54, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.