tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Aspen → Denver via San Francisco: arrives on time 47%

  1. 09:40 ASE → 11:19 SFO
    UA 5745 · United, flown by SkyWest · 2h 39m · 46% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 24m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:43 SFO → 16:35 DEN
    UA 540 · United · 2h 52m · 77% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 39 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 24m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip6h 55mASE 09:40 to DEN 16:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.