tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Aspen → San Francisco via Denver: arrives on time 50%

  1. 09:15 ASE → 10:33 DEN
    UA 5770 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 18m · 83% on time, 4.3% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:21 DEN → 13:04 SFO
    UA 1561 · United · 2h 43m · 72% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Aspen). Times are local. Both flew on 27 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (4.3% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip4h 49mASE 09:15 to SFO 13:04, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.