tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Memphis → Newark via Chicago: arrives on time 57%

  1. 14:22 MEM → 16:29 ORD
    UA 5780 · United, flown by SkyWest · 2h 07m · 70% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 3h 38m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:07 ORD → 23:39 EWR
    UA 759 · United · 2h 32m · 65% on time, 5.3% cancelled

Total trip 8h 17m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 173 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 38m layover.
Arrives on time57%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (5.3% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip8h 17mMEM 14:22 to EWR 23:39, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.