tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Memphis → Newark via Houston: arrives on time 41%

  1. 15:23 MEM → 17:25 IAH
    UA 5798 · United, flown by SkyWest · 2h 02m · 71% on time, 0.4% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Houston (IAH) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:18 IAH → 23:00 EWR
    UA 404 · United · 3h 42m · 66% on time, 2.7% cancelled

Total trip 6h 37m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (0.4% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (2.7% are) and within 15 minutes (66%).
Total trip6h 37mMEM 15:23 to EWR 23:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.