tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Rapid City → Chicago via Denver: arrives on time 29%

  1. 15:31 RAP → 17:10 DEN
    UA 5805 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 39m · 67% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:00 DEN → 21:39 ORD
    UA 1411 · United · 2h 39m · 50% on time, 0.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 08m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of Rapid City). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (0.8% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip5h 08mRAP 15:31 to ORD 21:39, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.