tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Rapid City → Minneapolis via Chicago: arrives on time 53%

  1. 06:00 RAP → 09:34 ORD
    UA 5811 · United, flown by SkyWest · 2h 34m · 83% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:25 ORD → 12:17 MSP
    UA 5684 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 52m · 79% on time, 6.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 17m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h ahead of Rapid City). Times are local. Both flew on 27 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time53%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (6.5% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip5h 17mRAP 06:00 to MSP 12:17, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.