tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Medford → Denver via San Francisco: arrives on time 40%

  1. 18:35 MFR → 20:07 SFO
    UA 5883 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 32m · 53% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:00 SFO → 00:47 DEN +1 day
    UA 301 · United · 2h 47m · 86% on time, 0.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 12m, scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h ahead of Medford). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection48%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 52% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (48%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip5h 12mMFR 18:35 to DEN 00:47, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.