tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Madison → Newark via Chicago: arrives on time 51%

  1. 06:41 MSN → 07:54 ORD
    UA 5902 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 13m · 89% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:40 ORD → 12:06 EWR
    UA 2301 · United · 2h 26m · 78% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Madison). Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time51%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip4h 25mMSN 06:41 to EWR 12:06, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.