tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Aspen → San Francisco via Los Angeles: arrives on time 48%

  1. 19:15 ASE → 20:43 LAX
    UA 5940 · United, flown by SkyWest · 2h 28m · 62% on time, 9.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 49m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 22:32 LAX → 23:59 SFO
    AA 6510 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 27m · 81% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Aspen). Times are local. Both flew on 46 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 19 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 1h 49m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (9.5% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip5h 44mASE 19:15 to SFO 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.