tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Knoxville → Washington via Chicago: arrives on time 35%

  1. 17:45 TYS → 18:55 ORD
    UA 6000 · United, flown by SkyWest · 2h 10m · 77% on time, 5.4% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:45 ORD → 22:54 DCA
    UA 2160 · United · 2h 09m · 56% on time, 5.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (5.4% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (5.0% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip5h 09mTYS 17:45 to DCA 22:54, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.