tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Jacksonville → St Louis via Chicago: arrives on time 46%

  1. 18:35 JAX → 20:34 ORD
    UA 6012 · United, flown by SkyWest · 2h 59m · 73% on time, 8.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 26m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:00 ORD → 23:29 STL
    UA 4576 · United, flown by GoJet · 1h 29m · 70% on time, 6.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 54m, scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Jacksonville). Times are local. Both flew on 35 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection76%The first flight arrived more than 41 minutes late on 24% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 26m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (8.3% are) × connection made (76%) × second flight not cancelled (6.5% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip5h 54mJAX 18:35 to STL 23:29, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.