tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Jacksonville → Dulles via Chicago: arrives on time 47%

  1. 18:35 JAX → 20:34 ORD
    UA 6012 · United, flown by SkyWest · 2h 59m · 73% on time, 8.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 06m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:40 ORD → 00:45 IAD +1 day
    UA 2766 · United · 2h 05m · 69% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 21 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 06m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (8.3% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip6h 10mJAX 18:35 to IAD 00:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.