tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Providence via Chicago: arrives on time 36%

  1. 15:57 BNA → 18:05 ORD
    AA 6200 · American, flown by SkyWest · 2h 08m · 58% on time, 6.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 09m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:14 ORD → 22:43 PVD
    AA 1293 · American · 2h 28m · 63% on time, 4.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Providence is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 24 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 09m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (6.9% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (4.9% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip5h 45mBNA 15:57 to PVD 22:43, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.