tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Austin via Chicago: arrives on time 32%

  1. 15:57 BNA → 18:05 ORD
    AA 6200 · American, flown by SkyWest · 2h 08m · 58% on time, 6.9% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:03 ORD → 21:59 AUS
    AA 1715 · American · 2h 44m · 61% on time, 1.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection56%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 44% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (6.9% are) × connection made (56%) × second flight not cancelled (1.5% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip5h 50mBNA 15:57 to AUS 21:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.