tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → San Diego via Chicago: arrives on time 29%

  1. 15:57 BNA → 18:05 ORD
    AA 6200 · American, flown by SkyWest · 2h 08m · 58% on time, 6.9% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:59 ORD → 21:22 SAN
    AA 1924 · American · 4h 22m · 60% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 24m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection53%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 47% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (6.9% are) × connection made (53%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip7h 24mBNA 15:57 to SAN 21:22, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.