tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Detroit via Chicago: arrives on time 25%

  1. 15:57 BNA → 18:05 ORD
    AA 6200 · American, flown by SkyWest · 2h 08m · 58% on time, 6.9% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:56 ORD → 21:34 DTW
    AA 4931 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 37m · 57% on time, 6.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 36m, scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection50%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 50% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (6.9% are) × connection made (50%) × second flight not cancelled (6.9% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip4h 36mBNA 15:57 to DTW 21:34, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.