tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Louisville via Chicago: arrives on time 45%

  1. 15:57 BNA → 18:05 ORD
    AA 6200 · American, flown by SkyWest · 2h 08m · 58% on time, 6.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 24m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:29 ORD → 22:04 SDF
    AA 4603 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 35m · 75% on time, 4.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 07m, scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 39 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 24m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (6.9% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (4.3% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip5h 07mBNA 15:57 to SDF 22:04, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.