tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Aspen → Chicago via Austin: arrives on time 36%

  1. 13:46 ASE → 17:09 AUS
    AA 6205 · American, flown by SkyWest · 2h 23m · 58% on time, 5.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 17m layover in Austin (AUS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:26 AUS → 21:39 ORD
    AA 1398 · American · 3h 13m · 60% on time, 5.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 53m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of Aspen). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 32 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 17m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (5.6% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (5.3% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip6h 53mASE 13:46 to ORD 21:39, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.