tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Aspen → San Francisco via Austin: arrives on time 54%

  1. 13:46 ASE → 17:09 AUS
    AA 6205 · American, flown by SkyWest · 2h 23m · 58% on time, 5.6% cancelled
  2. 2h 52m layover in Austin (AUS) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 20:01 AUS → 21:50 SFO
    UA 292 · United · 3h 49m · 64% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 9h 04m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Aspen). Times are local. Both flew on 50 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection90%The first flight arrived more than 82 minutes late on 10% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 2h 52m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (5.6% are) × connection made (90%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip9h 04mASE 13:46 to SFO 21:50, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.