tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Austin via Los Angeles: arrives on time 39%

  1. 16:04 SFO → 17:45 LAX
    AA 6221 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 41m · 47% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 07m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:52 LAX → 23:55 AUS
    AA 2118 · American · 3h 03m · 75% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 51m, scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 22 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 07m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip5h 51mSFO 16:04 to AUS 23:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.