tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Seattle via Los Angeles: arrives on time 33%

  1. 16:04 SFO → 17:45 LAX
    AA 6221 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 41m · 47% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 03m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:48 LAX → 21:45 SEA
    AA 4920 · American, flown by SkyWest · 2h 57m · 67% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 41m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection51%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 49% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (51%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip5h 41mSFO 16:04 to SEA 21:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.