tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Kansas City → New York via Chicago: arrives on time 35%

  1. 13:30 MCI → 15:21 ORD
    AA 6249 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 51m · 66% on time, 4.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 12m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:33 ORD → 20:04 JFK
    AA 1421 · American · 2h 34m · 57% on time, 11.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 37m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Times are local. Both flew on 38 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 27 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 12m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (4.8% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (11.7% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip5h 37mMCI 13:30 to JFK 20:04, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.