tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Kansas City → New York via Chicago: arrives on time 30%

  1. 13:30 MCI → 15:21 ORD
    AA 6249 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 51m · 66% on time, 4.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 09m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:30 ORD → 19:53 LGA
    AA 2086 · American · 2h 23m · 50% on time, 11.1% cancelled

Total trip 5h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Times are local. Both flew on 38 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 24 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 09m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (4.8% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (11.1% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip5h 23mMCI 13:30 to LGA 19:53, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.