tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Kansas City → Pensacola via Chicago: arrives on time 59%

  1. 09:12 MCI → 11:02 ORD
    AA 6250 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 51m · 76% on time, 1.7% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:59 ORD → 14:26 PNS
    AA 4023 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 27m · 82% on time, 2.1% cancelled

Total trip 5h 14m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 33 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time59%First flight not cancelled (1.7% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (2.1% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip5h 14mMCI 09:12 to PNS 14:26, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.