tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Monterey → Dallas-Fort Worth via Phoenix: arrives on time 33%

  1. 16:14 MRY → 18:14 PHX
    AA 6268 · American, flown by SkyWest · 2h 00m · 75% on time, 3.5% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:00 PHX → 23:25 DFW
    AA 633 · American · 2h 25m · 60% on time, 8.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 11m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 2 h ahead of Monterey). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (3.5% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (8.7% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip5h 11mMRY 16:14 to DFW 23:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.