tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Monterey → San Francisco via Phoenix: arrives on time 43%

  1. 16:14 MRY → 18:14 PHX
    AA 6268 · American, flown by SkyWest · 2h 00m · 75% on time, 3.5% cancelled
  2. 2h 09m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:23 PHX → 22:23 SFO
    AA 686 · American · 2h 00m · 46% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 84 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 09m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (3.5% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (46%).
Total trip6h 09mMRY 16:14 to SFO 22:23, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.