tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → New York via Phoenix: arrives on time 85%

  1. 16:13 SMF → 18:16 PHX
    AA 6354 · American, flown by SkyWest · 2h 03m · 75% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 3h 34m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:50 PHX → 05:47 JFK +1 day
    AA 1587 · American · 4h 57m · 87% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 10h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 38 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 169 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 34m layover.
Arrives on time85%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (87%).
Total trip10h 34mSMF 16:13 to JFK 05:47, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.