tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Newark via Phoenix: arrives on time 81%

  1. 16:13 SMF → 18:16 PHX
    AA 6354 · American, flown by SkyWest · 2h 03m · 75% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 3h 58m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:14 PHX → 06:00 EWR +1 day
    AA 2156 · American · 4h 46m · 83% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 10h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 33 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 193 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 58m layover.
Arrives on time81%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (83%).
Total trip10h 47mSMF 16:13 to EWR 06:00, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.