Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
Sacramento → Chicago via Phoenix: arrives on time 40%
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16:13 SMF → 18:16 PHXAA 6354 · American, flown by SkyWest · 2h 03m · 75% on time, 1.9% cancelled
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53m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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19:09 PHX → 00:51 ORD +1 dayAA 3137 · American · 3h 42m · 58% on time, 5.6% cancelled
Total trip 6h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 38 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (5.6% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip6h 38mSMF 16:13 to ORD 00:51, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.