tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Milwaukee → Washington via Chicago: arrives on time 54%

  1. 05:02 MKE → 06:14 ORD
    AA 6358 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 12m · 89% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:02 ORD → 10:03 DCA
    AA 2965 · American · 2h 01m · 76% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Milwaukee). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip4h 01mMKE 05:02 to DCA 10:03, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.