tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tucson → Chicago via Phoenix: arrives on time 56%

  1. 10:13 TUS → 11:14 PHX
    AA 6367 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 00m · 78% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:15 PHX → 18:08 ORD
    AA 338 · American · 3h 53m · 70% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Tucson). Times are local. Both flew on 44 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection80%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 20% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time56%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (80%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip5h 55mTUS 10:13 to ORD 18:08, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.