tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tucson → Chicago via Phoenix: arrives on time 24%

  1. 17:20 TUS → 18:23 PHX
    AA 6368 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 03m · 58% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:09 PHX → 00:51 ORD +1 day
    AA 3137 · American · 3h 42m · 58% on time, 5.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 31m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Tucson). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection43%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 57% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time24%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (43%) × second flight not cancelled (5.6% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip5h 31mTUS 17:20 to ORD 00:51, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.