tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Monterey → San Francisco via Phoenix: arrives on time 30%

  1. 06:00 MRY → 07:57 PHX
    AA 6375 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 57m · 97% on time, 1.3% cancelled
  2. 2h 56m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:53 PHX → 12:58 SFO
    AA 3199 · American · 2h 05m · 31% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 131 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 56m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (1.3% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (31%).
Total trip6h 58mMRY 06:00 to SFO 12:58, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.