tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Traverse City → Philadelphia via Chicago: arrives on time 24%

  1. 19:53 TVC → 20:44 ORD
    AA 6380 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 51m · 59% on time, 12.1% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:42 ORD → 00:55 PHL +1 day
    AA 490 · American · 2h 14m · 56% on time, 12.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 03m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time24%First flight not cancelled (12.1% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (12.5% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip5h 03mTVC 19:53 to PHL 00:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.