tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Aspen → Chicago via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 23%

  1. 14:21 ASE → 17:40 DFW
    AA 6384 · American, flown by SkyWest · 2h 19m · 68% on time, 2.3% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:38 DFW → 21:22 ORD
    AA 1424 · American · 2h 44m · 39% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of Aspen). Times are local. Both flew on 43 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time23%First flight not cancelled (2.3% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (39%).
Total trip6h 01mASE 14:21 to ORD 21:22, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.