tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Aspen → Austin via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 38%

  1. 14:21 ASE → 17:40 DFW
    AA 6384 · American, flown by SkyWest · 2h 19m · 68% on time, 2.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 20m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:00 DFW → 20:03 AUS
    AA 789 · American · 1h 03m · 55% on time, 2.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 42m, scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h ahead of Aspen). Times are local. Both flew on 43 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 35 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 20m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (2.3% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (2.5% are) and within 15 minutes (55%).
Total trip4h 42mASE 14:21 to AUS 20:03, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.