tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → Sacramento via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 33%

  1. 18:49 HOU → 20:15 DFW
    AA 6385 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 26m · 52% on time, 8.5% cancelled
  2. 2h 15m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:30 DFW → 23:59 SMF
    AA 509 · American · 3h 29m · 44% on time, 6.1% cancelled

Total trip 7h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Houston). Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection88%The first flight arrived more than 90 minutes late on 12% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 15m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (8.5% are) × connection made (88%) × second flight not cancelled (6.1% are) and within 15 minutes (44%).
Total trip7h 10mHOU 18:49 to SMF 23:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.