tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Kansas City → Phoenix via Chicago: arrives on time 14%

  1. 19:46 MCI → 21:38 ORD
    AA 6399 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 52m · 40% on time, 11.8% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:34 ORD → 00:14 PHX +1 day
    AA 2786 · American · 3h 39m · 55% on time, 11.1% cancelled

Total trip 6h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Kansas City). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection33%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 67% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time14%First flight not cancelled (11.8% are) × connection made (33%) × second flight not cancelled (11.1% are) and within 15 minutes (55%).
Total trip6h 27mMCI 19:46 to PHX 00:14, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.