tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Medford → San Francisco via Phoenix: arrives on time 29%

  1. 05:15 MFR → 07:42 PHX
    AA 6401 · American, flown by SkyWest · 2h 27m · 94% on time, 0.8% cancelled
  2. 3h 11m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:53 PHX → 12:58 SFO
    AA 3199 · American · 2h 05m · 31% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 43m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 146 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 11m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (0.8% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (31%).
Total trip7h 43mMFR 05:15 to SFO 12:58, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.