tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Seattle via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 30%

  1. 17:52 AUS → 19:15 DFW
    AA 6410 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 25m · 58% on time, 1.3% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:13 DFW → 22:26 SEA
    AA 2003 · American · 4h 13m · 55% on time, 3.4% cancelled

Total trip 6h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Austin). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection56%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 44% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (1.3% are) × connection made (56%) × second flight not cancelled (3.4% are) and within 15 minutes (55%).
Total trip6h 34mAUS 17:52 to SEA 22:26, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.