tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → New York via Los Angeles: arrives on time 51%

  1. 10:09 SFO → 11:49 LAX
    AA 6428 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 40m · 59% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 11m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:00 LAX → 21:34 JFK
    AA 4 · American · 5h 34m · 76% on time, 2.5% cancelled

Total trip 8h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 26 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 11m layover.
Arrives on time51%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (2.5% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip8h 25mSFO 10:09 to JFK 21:34, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.